Construction market

Sweden

The difficult to assess situation regarding the continued spread of COVID-19 and its effects on the global economy make any forecasts concerning the Swedish economy highly uncertain. New residential construction will probably see a dramatic decline this year which will most likely continue in 2021. The service sector is hard hit by COVID-19 and the resulting recession, which will have a negative effect on new construction of private premises this year and the next. However, public building construction can grow during 2020-2021 if project starts are brought forward. Renters of premises moving or going bankrupt can contribute to more renovation work during the forecast period. The forecast for civil engineering investments indicates an increase in both 2020 and 2021. However, a recession can affect private investments while public projects may be postponed due to reprioritizing.

Norway

There is a risk that compared to other Nordic countries Norway will be hit especially hard because its economy is also negatively affected by the drop in oil prices. Because of the weaker economy the forecast for residential construction, which is expected to be negatively affected by increasing turbulence on the market and rising unemployment, has been adjusted downward. Building construction investments in private premises are also expected to be negatively affected by the pandemic, especially in industry, which is in extension also hit by lower oil prices. Government finances on the other hand are strong after several years of good growth and higher employment providing the opportunity to keep public sector construction active. Growing investments in public building construction are expected to mitigate the effect of developments in total other building construction investments. The forecast for civil engineering investments indicates a stable rate of growth during 2020-2021.

Finland

Because it is highly dependent on exports Finland is expected to be hit hard by the global pandemic and consequent recession. After a dramatic drop in GNP in 2020 a slight upturn is expected in 2021. Total housing investments are expected to decline in 2020 and 2021 as a result of less new production. Primarily private premise investments are most likely to be negatively affected in 2020 and 2021 by the current situation. A possible increase of public sector investments can, however, stabilize other building construction. The forecasts for civil engineering investments signal horizontal development in 2020 and 2021. There is, however, a risk for both delays and reprioritizations considering the uncertain situation.

Housing

	2020	2021	2022
Sweden
Norway
Finland

Forecast for started-up housing investments, new production and renovations
Source: Navet Analystics

Other building construction

	2020	2021	2022
Sweden
Norway
Finland

Forecast for started-up other building construction investments, new production and renovations (Industry, office/retail etc. and public premises)
Source: Navet Analystics

Civil engineering

	2020	2021	2022
Sweden			–
Norway			–
Finland			–

Forecast for civil engineering investments
Source: Navet Analystics

	Worse forecast compared to the previous quarterly report
	Better forecast compared to the previous quarterly report
	Same forecast compared to the previous quarterly report