Construction market

Sweden

The recovery in Sweden’s economy proceeded throughout the second half of 2020. The positive development was primarily driven by the recovery in industry, predominantly in exports. The overall decline in the Swedish economy for 2020 is calculated at 2.8 percent. GNP growth is expected to land at around three percent this year and accelerate in 2022. The increase in both housing and premises construction was estimated at nearly five percent in 2020. Growing public spending and construction of more apartment buildings are the main factors behind this growth. The forecast for housing construction over the next two years indicates a downturn in 2021 followed by an upswing in 2022. Expectations for other building construction are just the opposite, with an upturn in 2021 and then a downward adjustment in 2022. Civil engineering investments increased in 2020 driven by investments in energy and transportation. It appears this growth will continue under 2021 and then level out in 2022.

Norway

The Norwegian economy recovered well at the end of 2020 and there are strong indications that growth will further accelerate this year. Recovery is primarily driven by private consumption. Growth in other building construction investments was good last year due to a positive development in premises. Investments in public premises are expected to increase another year while a downturn is expected in private premise construction. All in all other building construction declined in 2021 and is expected to develop sideways in 2022. The forecast for housing construction has been adjusted positively from falling in 2021 to leveling out. Housing investments are expected to show growth again in 2022. Regarding civil engineering investments the policy continues to be expansive and the forecast indicates good growth during 2021 and 2022.

Finland

The downturn in the Finnish economy in 2020 is believed to have been limited to around three percent. Recovery for the Finnish economy relies to a large extent on global recovery and its impact on export industries. Growth is therefore expected to spurt in 2022. The total volume of production-started building construction volumes increased in 2020. The upswing referred to both homes and premises. A horizontal development is expected in 2021 followed by an increase in volumes in 2022. Housing construction will probably weigh down development in 2021 only to become a driving force for growth in 2022. Civil engineering construction increased in 2020 which will most likely be followed by a slight decline in 2021 to then level out in 2022.

Housing

	2021	2022	2023
Sweden
Norway
Finland

Forecast for production-started housing investments, new production and renovations
Source: Navet Analytics

Other building construction

	2021	2022	2023
Sweden
Norway
Finland

Forecast for production-started other building construction investments, new production and renovations (Industry, office/retail etc. and public premises)
Source: Navet Analytics

 

Civil engineering

	2021	2022	2023
Sweden			–
Norway			–
Finland			–

Forecast for civil engineering investments
Source: Navet Analytics

	Worse forecast compared to the previous quarterly report
	Better forecast compared to the previous quarterly report
	Same forecast compared to the previous quarterly report