The construction market
Although Swedish growth is expected to slow this year economic development will still be positive, primarily due to global recovery. Domestic demand continues to be high due to low interest rates, more jobs and less unemployment. Despite risks and warnings for a possible real estate bubble and the high level of household loans housing construction will probably remain strong. First and foremost apartment construction is on the rise, which will most likely lead to a reduction in started-up construction of new homes next year. Total building construction investments are, however, expected to develop sideways this year and next due in part to the high volumes last year and in part to because of capacity limitations in labor and material supplies. Private and public premise construction is forecasted to take a dip this year after the upturn in previous years. Civil engineering construction is expected to land at around the same levels but will accelerate in 2018, driven mainly by investments in road and railway networks as well as the start of construction on the subway extension in Stockholm.
Growth was weak in the Norwegian economy in 2016, but is now expected to accelerate. The GNP will probably increase to more than 1.7 percent this year and close to 2.0 in 2018. This brighter picture has lead to a positive adjustment in the forecast for single home construction. However, developments in apartment building construction appear to take a more negative direction. Zero growth is expected for building construction investments on the whole for the period 2017-2018. Civil engineering construction is expected to have a better development and is favored by political stimulus aimed at countering growing unemployment. The forecast for 2018 has been positively adjusted.
The situation for the Finnish economy continues to be cautiously positive. With households as the locomotive, higher exports and rising investments are expected to increase the GNP by around 1.5 percent this year and next. Started-up building construction investments took a major step forward last year due to a rise in private and public premise construction. The upturn last year will likely be followed by a levelling out this year and next. In a comparison between the sectors single home construction and apartment building renovation are those expected to come out on top. This development has led to an adjustment upwards of the total forecast for new and refurbished housing. Civil engineering construction is expected to grow slightly this year and level out in 2018.
Forecast for started-up housing investments, new and renovations
Other building construction
Forecast for started-up other building construction investments, new and renovations (Industry, office/retail etc. and public premises)
Forecast for civil engineering investments
|Worse forecast compared to the previous quarterly report|
|Better forecast compared to the previous quarterly report|
|Same forecast compared to the previous quarterly report|