Construction market

Sweden

Growth is expected to be limited to 0.5 percent in 2024. The cost of living is high and unemployment is expected to increase significantly this year, which will curb consumption. Housing construction, halved in 2023, will most likely continue to contract in 2024 before the trend turns in 2025. The tempo of interest rate cuts has a serious impact on developments in housing investments. Both private and public premise construction will probably diminish this year as well due to the challenges facing government budgets and weak investment signals from the service sector and commerce. The downturn is expected to level off in 2025. Industry’s building construction investments are expected to grow by a few percent per year in 2024 and 2025. Civil engineering construction, which increased in 2023, is expected to level out in 2024 followed by an upturn in 2025.

Norway

Growth in the mainland economy is expected to land just under one percent in 2024, followed by an upturn in 2025. Inflation and high interest rates are having a negative impact. However, a relatively weak Norwegian krone is contributing to a positive trade balance. Domestic consumption is under pressure from the negative development in real wages and higher home loan costs. Housing construction, which dropped dramatically in 2023, is expected to contract slightly this year followed by growth in 2025. Growth is expected in other building construction in 2024, driven by industry and the public sector and that trend appears to continue into 2025. The total volume in building construction investments indicates growth in 2024 and 2025. Civil engineering construction is believed to have increased in 2023 and it looks like this positive development will continue in 2024 but then level out in 2025.

Finland

Finnish economy is expected to grow by a half percent in 2024. Growth is challenged by the continuing decline in housing construction and a service sector suffering from households on restricted budgets. Activity is held back by rising unemployment and high interest rates. Growth in the economy will probably come in 2025 and land at just over 1.5 percent. Housing construction declined dramatically in 2023 and this negative trend is expected to continue in 2024 before it turns in 2025. Other building construction is expected to develop negatively during 2024 regarding both industry as well as investments in premises by the private and public sectors. The trend is somewhat more positive in 2025 when the decline is expected to level out. Civil engineering is expected to decrease in 2024 followed by an upswing in 2025.

Housing

	2024	2025	2026
Sweden
Norway
Finland

Forecast for production-started housing investments, new production and renovations
Source: Navet

Other building construction

	2024	2025	2026
Sweden
Norway
Finland

Forecast for production-started other building construction investments, new production and renovations (Industry, office/retail etc. and public premises)
Source: Navet

Civil engineering

	2024	2025	2026
Sweden			–
Norway			–
Finland			–

Forecast for civil engineering investments
Source: Navet

	Same forecast compared to the previous quarterly report
	Better forecast compared to the previous quarterly report
	Worse forecast compared to the previous quarterly report