Construction market

Sweden

The recovery of Sweden’s economy, supported by vaccinations, financial stimuli and the withdrawal of restrictions has been surprisingly positive and a great deal of Swedish business appears to be flourishing. It seems GNP will grow by more than four percent in 2021, driven in part by domestic consumption and in part by growing commercial production and higher investments. At the same time a lack of capacity, rising material costs and the spread of the Delta variant risk putting a damper on the economic upturn. Collectively, production-started building construction investments may grow to somewhere in the vicinity of six percent in 2021. Growth is expected in most areas and basically only renovations in private premises are expected to take a negative turn. The forecast for production-started housing investments in 2021 has improved and they are expected to rise. The forecast for 2022 shows growth as well. Other building construction is expected to grow in 2021 but in 2022 production-started investments will slow due to subdued growth in premises. Civil engineering investments are expected to grow at a good rate this year followed by a slight downturn in 2022. Uncertainty concerning Cementa’s ability to continue with limestone quarrying can entail forestalling some projects.

Norway

The Norwegian economy has recovered relatively well. In June mainland GNP was back to the same level as February 2020, i.e. before the pandemic. The forecast for 2021 in general indicates an increase of around 3.5 percent. Recovery is expected to be even stronger 2022 when household consumption will most likely grow substantially. The total volume of building construction investments reflects good growth in 2021 with an upturn in many different areas. Industrial building construction investments have developed particularly well so far this year. However, taking the forecast for the entire year into consideration, it seems public construction investments will develop best during 2021. All in all other building construction is expected to grow in 2021 and then decline in 2022. The forecast for production-started housing investments shows sideways development for 2021 and then growth in 2022. Apartment building construction has recovered but is still expected to decline slightly this year. The forecast for civil engineering investments is continued strong growth in 2021 to be followed by even greater growth in 2022.

Finland

The Finnish economy is expected to grow by more than three percent in 2021, which is slightly higher than the downturn in 2020. Growth will most likely be driven by household consumption while the upturn in gross investments for the year will probably be relatively mild. The total volume of building construction investments is expected to increase this year due to strong growth in construction of private premises and new apartment buildings. Even single home construction is expected to grow due to ebbing unemployment and a brighter economy. On the other hand, public building construction investments appear to decline slightly in 2021. The forecast for production-started housing construction and other building construction has improved for 2021 and indicates stable growth while development in 2022 is expected to be sideways. The forecast for civil engineering construction indicates a slight decline in 2021 followed by leveling out in 2022.

Housing

	2021	2022	2023
Sweden
Norway
Finland

Forecast for production-started housing investments, new production and renovations
Source: Navet Analytics

Other building construction

	2021	2022	2023
Sweden
Norway
Finland

Forecast for production-started other building construction investments, new production and renovations (Industry, office/retail etc. and public premises)
Source: Navet Analytics

Civil engineering

	2021	2022	2023
Sweden			–
Norway			–
Finland			–

Forecast for civil engineering investments
Source: Navet Analytics

	Worse forecast compared to the previous quarterly report
	Better forecast compared to the previous quarterly report
	Same forecast compared to the previous quarterly report