Construction market

Sweden

Prospects for the economy are looking up and GNP is expected to rise by about one percent this year. The basis for this is the deflating cost pressure that has led the Riksbank to lower interest rates three times so far this year with another anticipated four more during the coming six or so months. Housing construction will most likely continue to contract in 2024 before the trend turns in 2025 as a result of economic recovery, lower financing costs and initiation of previously deferred investments. Both private and public premise construction, including industry’s building construction, might very well grow this year despite the weak economy in municipalities and business. Civil engineering construction is expected to move horizontally in 2024 followed by an upturn in 2025.

Norway

Interest rates hikes, high inflation and low international demand are squelching growth in Norway and the economy is expected to only grow by 0.7 percent in 2024. However, inflation is expected to drop and interest rates can begin to come down during the first half-year of 2025. Housing construction is expected to contract this year followed by growth in 2025 supported by lower interest rates and stronger economic growth. Growth in other building construction is expected to be stronger on the whole in 2024 than previously predicted, driven by industry and the public sector while at the same time office/retail construction is expected to contract. Private premise investments are expected to decline in 2025 while it appears the public sector will continue to grow. Civil engineering construction is expected to grow slightly in 2024 and level out in 2025.

Finland

The Finnish GNP is expected to contract by 0.5 in 2024. Gross investments appear to severely decline for the second year in a row and household consumption remains basically on the same level as in 2023. However, inflation is expected to drop and interest rates are expected to come down next year which will support an anticipated growth of around 1.7 percent. Activity in ongoing housing construction is looking somewhat better this year than previously predicted, although from a very low level. Growth, in part stemming from lower inflation and unemployment, is forecast for next year. Development in other building construction is splintered with higher public investments, zero growth in industry and contracting office and retail construction. Next year private investments are expected to decline and the public sector increase slightly. Civil engineering is expected to decrease in 2024 followed by a slight upswing in 2025.

Housing

	2024	2025	2026
Sweden
Norway
Finland

Forecast for production-started housing investments, new production and renovations
Source: Navet

Other building construction

	2024	2025	2026
Sweden
Norway
Finland

Forecast for production-started other building construction investments, new production and renovations (Industry, office/retail etc. and public premises)
Source: Navet

Civil engineering

	2024	2025	2026
Sweden			–
Norway			–
Finland			–

Forecast for civil engineering investments
Source: Navet

	Same forecast compared to the previous quarterly report
	Better forecast compared to the previous quarterly report
	Worse forecast compared to the previous quarterly report