Construction market

Sweden

It appears Sweden’s economic growth in 2022 will turn out to have been better than expected. The forecast for GNP growth in 2022 points to an increase of 2.7 percent. However, the forecast for 2023 is considerably worse and indicates a reduction in GNP by close to one percent. The total volume of production-started building construction investments is expected to have contracted by nine percent in 2022 and diminish just as much in 2023. The downturn will probably be across the broad but most likely housing construction will be hit the hardest and contract significantly. For other building construction private industrial and premise construction is expected to decline while construction for the public sector is expected to remain on the same level as in 2022.  At the same time industry investments related to the green transition are in the works where several projects have already been launched. In time these will generate the need for homes, premises and infrastructure. Civil engineering investments continue to be on a high level and are believed to have grown in 2022 but are predicted to drop back down in 2023.

Norway

The Norwegian economy slowed at the end of 2022 but GNP is still expected to have grown by three percent thanks to strong private consumption. In 2023 GNP will probably only increase marginally due to diminishing household consumption. Norwegian building construction investments appear to have decreased by three percent in 2022 and the negative trend can grow stronger in 2023. A general slowdown in construction is not expected but housing investments and private construction are most likely to be affected by the downturn in the economy. Investments in public sector construction are expected to remain on the same level as in 2022. Investments in civil engineering are believed to have grown substantially in 2022 and are expected to remain on the same high level in 2023.

Finland

Growth of the Finnish economy developed surprisingly well during the first half-year of 2022 despite the breakdown in trade with important commercial partners due to the war in Ukraine. However, growth slowed during the autumn and all told, GNP is estimated to have grown by 2.3 percent in 2022. In 2023 GNP is expected to contract by 0.2 percent. The total volume of building construction was probably down around ten percent in 2022 and will most likely diminish by same amount in 2023. A  downturn in 2023 is expected in all sectors but particularly in housing and private premise construction. Zero growth is forecast for civil engineering in both 2022 and 2023.

Housing

	2022	2023	2024
Sweden
Norway
Finland

Forecast for production-started housing investments, new production and renovations
Source: Navet

Other building construction

	2022	2023	2024
Sweden
Norway
Finland

Forecast for production-started other building construction investments, new production and renovations (Industry, office/retail etc. and public premises)
Source: Navet

Civil engineering

	2022	2023	2024
Sweden
Norway
Finland

Forecast for civil engineering investments
Source: Navet

	Worse forecast compared to the previous quarterly report
	Better forecast compared to the previous quarterly report
	Same forecast compared to the previous quarterly report