Construction market

Sweden

The Swedish GNP is believed to have grown by 0.7 percent in 2024 and growth is estimated at a bit over 2 percent in 2025. The Riksbank has successively lowered the repo rate from 4.0 to 2.25 percent. The recession in the Swedish economy will most likely continue until the end of 2026. Households, which should be the engines of recovery, are still cautious. Housing construction contracted in 2024. The construction of single homes appeared to have declined dramatically while apartment building construction probably just leveled out. Housing construction is expected to grow in 2025 but from a low level. In other building construction it looks like private and public premise construction, including industry’s building construction, grew last year. Growth is expected to continue in 2025 but at a lower rate. Building construction investments are affected positively by a slowdown in inflation, lower interest rates and the government’s expansive finance policy but they are dampened by unemployment and several years of significantly higher construction costs. Civil engineering construction appears to have grown on a broad front in 2024 and this is expected to continue in 2025.

Norway

The Norwegian mainland economy was squeezed by high interest rates, high inflation and low international demand. Norway’s GNP is believed to have grown by 0.8 percent in 2024 and calculated growth in 2025 is 1.7 percent. Gross investments have fallen while household consumption appears to have increased. Housing construction is expected to have contracted in 2024 but growth is forecasted in 2025 supported by lower interest rates. Private investments seem to have diminished in other building construction last year while the public sector grew. Total premise construction, including industry, contracted in 2024 but is expected to grow in 2025 as the economy recovers. Civil engineering construction is expected to have grown slightly in 2024 due to a recovery in roads and railroads and will likely have about the same investment volume in 2025.

Finland

The Finnish GNP is expected to have contracted by 0.5 in 2024. Falling inflation, higher private consumption and a gradual increase in export demand are expected to support an anticipated growth of around 1.7 percent in 2025. Interest rates and unemployment probably reached their culmen last year and both are expected to decrease in 2025. Housing construction contracted slightly in 2024 as a result of fewer apartment buildings under construction. Both single homes and apartment buildings are expected to develop positively in 2025. Development in other building construction is splintered. Investments in office buildings and retail diminished in 2024 while industry and the public sector increased. All in all, investments are expected to have remained on the same level in 2024 as the previous year. A slight downturn is expected in 2025 due to industry, which most probably developed negatively, while weak growth is forecasted for the other segments. Civil engineering is expected to have decreased in 2024 due to fewer investments in railroads but there can be a slight upswing in 2025.

Housing

	2024	2025	2026
Sweden
Norway
Finland

Forecast for production-started housing investments, new production and renovations
Source: Navet

Other building construction

	2024	2025	2026
Sweden
Norway
Finland

Forecast for production-started other building construction investments, new production and renovations (Industry, office/retail etc. and public premises)
Source: Navet

Civil engineering

	2024	2025	2026
Sweden			–
Norway			–
Finland			–

Forecast for civil engineering investments
Source: Navet

	Same forecast compared to the previous quarterly report
	Better forecast compared to the previous quarterly report
	Worse forecast compared to the previous quarterly report