Construction market
Sweden
The macroeconomic situation is characterized by continued geopolitical tensions, trade-related issues and low appetite among households. The cautious attitude of households due to uncertainty about the world around us is currently hampering stronger development, even though their disposable income has grown as interest rates and taxes have gone down and wages have gone up.
Housing construction recovery is expected to continue, although from a low level and slightly slower than indicated by previous forecasts. An upturn is forecasted for newly built premises in 2026. While some industrial investments have not materialized construction of new premises is being supported by politically driven investments in the justice system and defense forces. In the same vein, the overall development in the renovation market is expected to be slightly positive in housing and stable growth in premises.
Total civil engineering investments are expected to continue to increase in 2026. This is primarily due to expansion of the electricity grid, both local and regional grids and transmission grids, as well as more road maintenance and investments in railroads. In addition, investments in defense facilities, ports and shipping lanes are expected to be historically high going forward.
Norway
Activity is expected to increase in the Norwegian economy in part driven by the surprising interest rate reduction in June. Real wage growth and low unemployment are expected to boost purchasing power and benefit development in the construction market.
Housing construction is forecasted to slowly increase although somewhat higher construction costs than expected will delay recovery. Home renovations are expected to grow significantly after several years of weak development.
The continued high cost of financing and construction along with supply challenges will likely impact premise construction short-term. However, the large existing building stock needs to be maintained and rebuilt which will gradually increase the need for renovations, leading to growth in 2026. Higher military investments and good development in certain sections of the industry also contribute to development of the premise market.
An upturn is expected in the civil engineering market in 2026. Investments are expected to grow primarily in power and energy plants, railroad and streetcar facilities as well as municipal technique facilities.
Finland
Inflation in Finland is presumed to continue to stay clearly under two percent going forward, which together with higher wages and falling interest rates, are expected to improve consumers’ purchasing power in the coming years. GNP is expected to grow cautiously but it is hampered by slower economic growth, global turbulence and the rate of unemployment. Private consumption, investments in industry and the service sector, including the construction industry, as well as exports are the contributors to GNP growth.
The housing market has yet to begin to seriously recover, hindered by too much supply and continued sluggish home sales. Premise construction is expected to increase going forward and is the source of new production in the construction industry. Office and industrial buildings along with data centers and defense projects are the driving forces. Green investments also contribute to higher premise construction. Renovations have developed weakly in recent years and are now expected to grow somewhat, particularly regarding homes, as the need for them increases.
After declining for several years investments in civil engineering are on the rise, mainly due to higher infrastructure investments. Zero growth is estimated in operation and maintenance even though the need for them is great.
Housing
| 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | |
| Sweden |  | |  |
| Norway | | | |
| Finland |  | | |
Forecast for production-started housing investments, new production and renovations
Premise investments
| 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | |
| Sweden |  | |  |
| Norway | | | |
| Finland | |  |  |
Forecast for production-started premise investments, new production and renovations
Civil engineering
| 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | |
| Sweden | | | |
| Norway |  | | |
| Finland | | | |
Forecast for civil engineering investments
 | Same forecast compared to the previous interim report |
 | Better forecast compared to the previous interim report |
 | Worse forecast compared to the previous interim report |
As of 2025 Prognoscentret provides market forecasts. Construction is divided into housing construction (new homes and renovation) and premise construction (new premises and renovation). Premises comprise all buildings except homes and agricultural buildings. Civil engineering includes new investments and operations and maintenance. The color of the arrows shows the comparison with Prognoscentret’s previous forecast.
| Explanation | Symbol |
| Increase by more than 10% |  |
| Increase by 3-10% | |
| Unchanged ± 2% | |
| Reduction by 3-10% | |
| Reduction of more than 10% |  |