Construction market
Sweden
Inflation continued to deflate during the autumn of 2023. Most financial analysists seem to agree that interest peaked when Riksbanken last raised the rate to 4.0 percent. Riksbanken forecasts that the repo rate will remain unchanged in 2024 while the market expects a reduction already in the first half of the year. The high level of prices has a negative effect on both consumption and investments and Sweden’s GNP is believed to have contracted by 0.8 percent in 2023 and that there will be zero growth in 2024. There was a severe decline in housing construction in 2023 due to high costs and interest rates and households’ diminishing disposable income. This decline will most likely continue in 2024 although at a considerably slower rate. Private and public sector’s premise construction will probably also be affected negatively by the higher costs and deteriorating economy but industry’s building construction investments are expected to grow. Overall 2023 entailed a broad decline in other building construction investments. The negative trend is expected to continue in 2024, albeit to a lesser degree. Civil engineering construction is believed to have increased in 2023 through growing private investments in water and wastewater facilities and energy. Growth is expected to level out in 2024.
Norway
The Norwegian GNP has shown zero growth three quarters in a row. According to the forecast the Norwegian mainland economy is expected to grow by about one percent in 2023 and in 2024 primarily driven by public consumption and investments and mainland exports. Inflation is on its way down and the interest rate mostly likely reached its peak in 2023. Unemployment is low but employment growth has stagnated. In housing construction new production of apartment buildings has drastically contracted and single home construction has declined as well. Regarding other building construction, there has been a strong positive development in industrial premises and office buildings and retail space appear to have grown as well in 2023. However, there is still a negative trend in public investments. The total volume in building construction investments indicates zero growth in 2023 and a slight reduction in 2024. Civil engineering construction is expected to grow in both 2023 and 2024.
Finland
The Finnish GNP is expected to land at about zero growth in 2023. Gross investments and private consumption have been negatively affected by the weak global economy, high prices and the rise in interest rates. Household’s purchasing power has diminished and homeowners have seen their wealth shrink with the falling price of homes. In 2024 GNP is expected to grow by around half a percent. Housing construction is believed to have contracted considerably in 2023 for both single homes and apartments. Developments in other building construction diverge. While industrial and public sector building construction investments appear to have grown in 2023 office buildings and retail space seem to be headed the other way. A decline is expected in total building construction investments in both 2023 and 2024. Next year the decline in the building construction market will mostly likely be broad, negatively affected by high prices and rising unemployment. Civil engineering is believed to have developed sideways in 2023 while a slight downturn is expected in 2024.
Housing
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
| Sweden |  |  |  |
| Norway | | | |
| Finland | | | |
Forecast for production-started housing investments, new production and renovations
Source: Navet
Other building construction
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
| Sweden | | | |
| Norway |  |  | |
| Finland |  | | |
Forecast for production-started other building construction investments, new production and renovations (Industry, office/retail etc. and public premises)
Source: Navet
Civil engineering
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
| Sweden | |  | |
| Norway | | | |
| Finland | |  | |
Forecast for civil engineering investments
Source: Navet
 | Worse forecast compared to the previous quarterly report |
 | Better forecast compared to the previous quarterly report |
 | Same forecast compared to the previous quarterly report |