Construction market
Sweden
Despite continued geopolitical tensions the macroeconomic situation is expected to improve in Sweden during the year. Households’ confidence has grown and several economic indicators have seen an upturn. At the same time the war in the Middle East has raised the risk of an energy crisis and inflation that can lead to tighter monetary policies. At the moment, however, inflation appears to be under control and the policy rate is expected to remain on the same level.
Housing construction recovery is expected to gradually continue in 2026, albeit from a low level. Lower interest rates, relaxation of home loan regulations and price stabilization on the second hand market will most likely augment demand. However, the cautious behavior of households and high construction costs have a dampening effect.
Investments in premise construction are expected to grow somewhat in 2026 after declining for a few years. Above all, 2026 and onward will be marked by major construction in the justice system and defense, investments in datacenters and continued substantial industrial construction. Development in the renovation market is primarily driven by renovations needed in schools and care buildings along with a growing demand for energy renovations.
Total civil engineering investments are expected to continue to increase in 2026. The new national plan for transportation infrastructure for the years 2026-2037 with higher investments in railroads and road maintenance, the expansion of the electricity grid and in water and sewage systems as well as more investments in defense will generate broad growth in the civil engineering market.
Norway
Macroeconomic driving forces are still hindered by high interest rates and construction costs at the same time Norway’s population growth is dropping off. Geopolitical turbulence with wars adds to the uncertainty. Norges Bank has revised the interest rate trajectory and signaled a raise in the interest rate in 2026 because of persistent inflation and higher energy prices.
A gradual increase in housing construction is predicted in 2026 although construction costs and interest levels are slowing down recovery. Home renovations are expected to show continued growth, albeit at a slower tempo than previous forecasts have indicated.
Production-starts of premise construction remain on a low level but the forecast for investments in 2026 points upwards. Growing defense investments are expected to contribute to development in the premise market although the effects are not yet tangible. However, the large existing building stock needs to be maintained and rebuilt which will gradually increase the need for renovations in 2026.
The civil engineering market is expected to develop on the same level as in 2025. Investments are expected to grow primarily in power and energy plants as well as municipal technique facilities. Several major road projects will also contribute to stable production in 2026. The forecasts for operation and maintenance are moderate for 2026 but growth is expected to accelerate again in 2027.
Finland
Inflation in Finland is expected to remain under two percent despite all the uncertainty created by the situation in the Middle East. Together with higher wages and falling interest rates, consumers’ purchasing power will improve in the coming years. At the same time growth is hampered by global volatility and the rate of unemployment in the country.
The housing market is expected to recover in 2026 from low levels, even though the market continues to be cautious and dampened by excess supply and continued sluggish home sales.
Despite the uncertainty, premise construction is also expected to grow going forward and drive new production in the construction industry. The driving forces are office and industrial buildings along with data centers and, in particular, defense and infrastructure projects. Renovations have developed weakly in recent years and demand in 2026 is expected to be hampered by high renovation costs, even though renovations are needed and there is potential for growth.
Investments in civil engineering are expected to continue to cautiously grow in 2026, mainly due to higher infrastructure investments. Zero growth is estimated in operation and maintenance, even though the need is great.
Housing
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | |
| Sweden |  |  | |
| Norway | | | |
| Finland | | | |
Forecast for production-started housing investments, new production and renovations
Premise investments
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | |
| Sweden |  |  | |
| Norway | | | |
| Finland |  | |  |
Forecast for production-started premise investments, new production and renovations
Civil engineering
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | |
| Sweden | | | |
| Norway |  | | |
| Finland | | | |
Forecast for civil engineering investments
 | Same forecast compared to the previous interim report |
 | Better forecast compared to the previous interim report |
 | Worse forecast compared to the previous interim report |
As of 2025 Prognoscentret provides market forecasts. Construction is divided into housing construction (new homes and renovation) and premise construction (new premises and renovation). Premises comprise all buildings except homes and agricultural buildings. Civil engineering includes new investments and operations and maintenance. The color of the arrows shows the comparison with Prognoscentret’s previous forecast.
| Explanation | Symbol |
| Increase by more than 10% |  |
| Increase by 3-10% | |
| Unchanged ± 2% | |
| Reduction by 3-10% | |
| Reduction of more than 10% |  |