Construction market
Sweden
Although Sweden is in an early recovery phase with normalized inflation and interest rates, economic developments remain uncertain due to geopolitical conflicts. Disturbances on the energy market can create new inflation pressure and affect interest rate levels.
Uncertainty concerning how prices will develop in general, the Riksbank’s interest policies and high construction costs have contributed to a cautious recovery in the construction market. Housing construction growth is expected in 2026, albeit from low investment levels.
In general, investments in premise construction have developed robustly in recent years and forecasts point to a continued high level, primarily in construction of public and industrial premises. Construction in the public sectors is expected to mainly increase in investments in elderly care, total defense, culture and sports. There are strong underlying driving forces for renovation and maintenance as well.
Total civil engineering investments are expected to continue to increase in 2026. The national plan for transportation infrastructure for the years 2026-2037 with higher investments in railroads and road maintenance, the expansion of the electricity grid and in water and sewage systems as well as more investments in defense will generate broad growth in the civil engineering market.
Norway
The Norwegian economy is expected to enter in 2026 into a better cycle with low unemployment, stable real wage growth and purchasing power in households. The outlook for growth is supported by an expansive fiscal policy, higher investments in defense and the energy sector as well as greater export revenues due to high oil and gas prices. At the same time Norges Bank raised the policy rate in May because of higher inflation.
Recovery for housing construction is expected to take longer than previously predicted. Forecasts have been adjusted downward due to higher interest rates and continued high construction costs. This is also expected to dampen activity on the renovation market. Weak growth is ecpected in 2026 which will gradually accelerate.
Premise construction appears to have stabilized on a new, lower level. The strongest development is expected in transportation and defense buildings, although high construction costs and interest rates hamper investments in premise construction on the whole. However, the large existing building stock needs to be maintained and rebuilt which will gradually increase the need for renovations. Growth is forecasted for 2026 while investments in 2027 are expected to be somewhat lower.
The prospects for the civil engineering market are more uncertain than before. Investments are expected to grow primarily in power and energy plants as well as municipal technique facilities. Several major road projects will also contribute to stable production in 2026. The forecasts for operation and maintenance are moderate for 2026 but growth is expected to accelerate again in 2027.
Finland
GDP is expected to grow in 2026, although the impact of international crises on energy and oil prices, inflation, interest rates and consumers’ confidence affect the certainty of forecasts. Investments, exports and even private consumption are expected to drive growth. Nonetheless, unemployment remains high in Finland.
Housing construction is expected to show cautious growth in 2026, although lower than previous forecasts indicated. Continued excess supply of existing housing, sluggish home sales and external uncertainty contribute to slower recovery. Renovations are also expected to develop slightly positively in 2026.
Investment levels in premise construction are expected to grow during 2026 and 2027 and then contract. Development is primarily driven by major projects that are ongoing or are expected to start during the year, mainly office and industrial buildings, data centers and hotel and restaurants.
Investments in civil engineering are expected to decrease slightly in 2026, mainly due to fewer investments in railroad construction as well as energy and water supply which are, however, in need of major investments. Investments in roads and streets are expected to increase while zero growth is estimated in operation and maintenance.
Housing
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | |
| Sweden |  | | |
| Norway |  | | |
| Finland | | | |
Forecast for production-started housing investments, new production and renovations
Premise investments
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | |
| Sweden |  | | |
| Norway | |  | |
| Finland |  |  |  |
Forecast for production-started premise investments, new production and renovations
Civil engineering
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | |
| Sweden | | | |
| Norway |  | | |
| Finland | | | |
Forecast for civil engineering investments
 | Same forecast compared to the previous interim report |
 | Better forecast compared to the previous interim report |
 | Worse forecast compared to the previous interim report |
As of 2025 Prognoscentret provides market forecasts. Construction is divided into housing construction (new homes and renovation) and premise construction (new premises and renovation). Premises comprise all buildings except homes and agricultural buildings. Civil engineering includes new investments and operations and maintenance. The color of the arrows shows the comparison with Prognoscentret’s previous forecast.
| Explanation | Symbol |
| Increase by more than 10% |  |
| Increase by 3-10% | |
| Unchanged ± 2% | |
| Reduction by 3-10% |  |
| Reduction of more than 10% |  |